The information on which the
announcement was based was
limited, originating from conceptual,
rather than detailed, planning
studies. One of the drawbacks of
making announcements with
limited information is that the
announcement creates expectations
that further review may determine
are not practical or possible. This
was the reason that Commissioner
MacKay recommended, in late 1987,
that “in the event a major capital
highway project must be announced
at a conceptual level of development,
the government [should] ensure
that expenditure authorizations be
limited to interim amounts sufficient
to develop project planning to a
level such that proper estimation
of cost and definition of scope can
be made.”
At the time of the
announcement, Treasury Board had
not approved either the scope or
the budget for the project. Not
until October 1989 did the ministry
prepare a Treasury Board submission
seeking approval for a scope of
work similar to that announced.
With the more detailed information
then available, the proposed project
budget was $1.4 billion.
In late November 1988, the
Premier announced the formation
of regional transportation planning
task forces to prepare regional
transportation plans. The report of
the Vancouver Island Transportation
Task Force, released in June 1989,
concluded that, for safety and
regional economic development
reasons, the Vancouver Island
Highway Project was the main
priority for the region.
Justification for the Project
The decision to upgrade the
Vancouver Island Highway was
based on apparent deficiencies—
specifically, safety and mobility—
of the existing facility. Functional
classification and design speed for
the proposed highway were
initially set at a high level to
improve safety and mobility factors.
Anticipated population growth for
Vancouver Island was also a factor.
However, traffic volumes were not
the determining factor for initial
decisions about what would be
built. The Minister’s 1988
announcement anticipated the
functional classification for the
highway without consideration of
projected traffic volumes.
No detailed analysis of costs
and benefits was conducted until
1991, when a ministry-commissioned
consultants’ report indicated that,
based on the project scope and
budget at the time, the project had a
positive net benefit. The consultants
found that the project was largely
justified on the basis of lives saved
and injuries and property damage
avoided as a result of improvements
to the highway. This, the consultant
concluded, combined with the
benefits of reduced travel time,
increased user comfort and
convenience, fuel savings and
reduced vehicular emissions, made
the Vancouver Island Highway
project “a cost-effective expenditure
of funds.”
In 1993, another consultant’s
review also concluded that there
would be positive net benefits from
the project, although the consultant
found that time savings made up
60-70% of user benefits. This
consultant made the findings using
the ministry’s recently-developed
procedures for measuring the direct
economic benefits and costs to
society of selected portions of the
Vancouver Island Highway Project.
28
Auditor General of British Columbia
1996/97 Report 3: Vancouver Island Highway Project: Planning and Design