Journal of Business Cases and Applications Volume 29
Statistical Analysis of 2020, Page 4
planned draft picks. As new information is gathered, some players become more desired while
other players become less desired.
Because of the 2020 coronavirus pandemic, almost all events after the combine had to be
cancelled. (West, 2020) Teams have attempted to look for other means to gather data (Benson,
2020); however, nothing matches the value of the face-to-face meetings. Not having the
opportunity for the additional meetings with players, teams might be more inclined to remain
committed to the post-combine rankings of players, which might result in less trades among
teams.
MOCK DRAFTS
Not only is the NFL Draft important for the teams, it is a big business. In typical year,
one without a pandemic, the draft is held over three days at the home city of one of its 32 teams.
The 2017 draft was held in Philadelphia, the home city of the Philadelphia Eagles. It is estimated
that the event had almost an $95 million economic impact on the city of Philadelphia. The 2018
draft, hosted in Dallas, reported an economic impact to city of Dallas of $125 million. Last
year’s 2019 draft was a tremendous success in Nashville, with approximately 600,000 people
attending the three-day event and an estimated economic impact of $224 million. (Axson, 2019)
In addition to the event itself, creating mock drafts to predict the results of the actual NFL
draft has become cottage industry. Anyone with a computer and a web site can create their own
mock draft while sitting in their home. A Google search for ‘NFL Mock Draft 2020’ identifies
over 65 million results. Major, well-respected sports media organizations, such as CBS Sports,
ESPN, and Sports Illustrated, are among the first few pages of results. Mixed in with these
organizations is a multitude of smaller organizations.
Many of the web sites offer mock drafts for free, while other sites require a monthly fee
to access them. The CBS Sports web site is one of the many sites that are free. In addition to
displaying several advertisements, the CBS Sports web site provides the current mock drafts for
seven of their sports analysts. (NFL Mock Drafts 2020, 2020) Two of the most well-known
‘draft experts,’ Todd McShay and Mel Kiper, reveal their mock drafts as exclusive content on
ESPN’s premium service, ESPN+, that requires a monthly fee for access. (Ota, 2020) In addition
to tremendous amount of online mock draft content, entire television shows are usually devoted
to predicting draft results during the two-month period prior to the draft.
Sports analysts use a variety of resources for creating their mock drafts. The primary
resource they use is their own analysis of each teams’ weaknesses. Whereas teams that have a
young, talented quarterback are much less likely to draft a quarterback in the first round, teams
that lack a pass rush are much more inclined to draft defensive linemen. Combined with their
analysis of the teams’ weaknesses, is their personal analysis of college prospects. If an analyst
decides a team needs a quarterback, then the analyst uses his knowledge to identify the ‘best’
college quarterback for that team.
Another resource that influences mock drafts is the philosophy of various teams. Teams
that are more focused on offense may have certain tendencies regarding how they draft. For
example, a team that is pass-oriented might be more inclined to select receivers.
A major resource that influences mock drafts is the analyst’s relationship with teams.
Most analysts have personal relationships with scouting staffs across the NFL. Through these
personal relationships, analysts gather information that helps them gain insight into the team’s
perception of potential draftees and into the team’s draft plans. As the draft gets closer, these