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Table 7: The Impact of Unexpected MM Performance on First Year NBA Salary
Controlling for Mock Draft-Select Samples
(Tobits with first year salary in 2009 dollars as dependent variable.)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
VARIABLES Total Sample Draft Eligible Seniors Early Entrants Prospects
PASE 172,870*** 135,008*** 120,008*** 163,037*** 164,816***
(30,092) (21,562) (27,440) (33,373) (31,652)
PP x ∆ in Points 35,763** 48,336*** 38,115*** 72,107*** 39,037**
(15,223) (10,925) (13,176) (19,851) (16,986)
PP x ∆ in Rebounds -10,504 5,371 -22,091 56,412 40,256
(34,388) (23,956) (30,708) (38,135) (34,807)
PP x ∆ in Assists 65,524 17,333 36,715 -118,782* 4,417
(51,981) (38,610) (45,274) (70,689) (63,282)
PP x ∆ in Steals -87,941 -18,981 15,784 -108,504 41,025
(82,633) (57,176) (66,668) (101,943) (94,934)
PP x ∆ in Blocks -176,105* -73,530 34,019 -100,650 -216,378**
(91,393) (62,721) (86,505) (96,116) (87,527)
PP x ∆ in Turnovers 40,025 25,425 -25,414 80,149 -35,335
(62,760) (44,449) (51,567) (79,545) (71,606)
PN x ∆ in Turnovers 16,244 13,859** 9,279 19,916 20,768*
(9,908) (6,808) (7,844) (13,490) (11,746)
PN x ∆ in Turnovers 2,130 -635.4 7,052 5,769 31,990
(23,253) (16,537) (19,202) (30,901) (25,920)
PN x ∆ in Turnovers 7,353 -16,183 5,562 -54,422 -50,966
(35,301) (25,060) (27,790) (55,684) (42,202)
PN x ∆ in Turnovers -43,996 -10,342 22,521 -83,230 -53,283
(57,068) (39,705) (45,591) (73,208) (63,385)
PN x ∆ in Turnovers 101,223 13,845 19,469 8,441 -97,687
(68,490) (48,046) (56,333) (87,294) (76,735)
PN x ∆ in Turnovers -39,074 22,259 39,260 -49,912 42,071
(38,763) (26,365) (30,655) (49,592) (41,641)
Heisler Mock Rank 99,722*** 57,011*** 40,627*** 87,252***
(9,162) (6,611) (11,577) (9,082)
No Heisler Rank -411,600** -310,563** -511,044*** 76,092
(172,600) (123,395) (184,740) (177,391)
Hybrid Mock Rank 36,954***
(3,809)
Observations 4,336 1,438 1,206 232 382
Controls include height, weight, position, class, regular season per game statistics (points, rebounds, assists, steals,
blocks, and turnovers), regular season games, conference, team’s MM seed, and year fixed effects.
Standard errors in parentheses; *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1